The title of this article might at first glance seem like a basic and very short topic, maybe even redundant, but for successful betting, it’s necessary to have a good understanding of the odds and their types that you find in the offer. Therefore, it’s not out of place to know a little theoretical knowledge from this article.
We can define betting odds as an indicator of the probability of what could happen at a sporting event. They are based on estimates created by sports betting analysts. Odds for one event determine the chances of the final outcome of that event. Basically, it’s a value that is multiplied by your stake, and the product is the total amount of your winnings.
Do the Chances Depend on the Odds?
Odds are often equated with the notion of chance, which is again closely related to probability. In general, it’s considered a chance that an event will happen that exact way. While, for example, when you flip a coin, the probability for both outcomes is the same, which means that there’s a 50% chance of it showing the heads, and 50% for the tails. So when flipping coins, you have a 50% probability of guessing the correct result. The sum of both possible cases is 100%.
Analysts who set odds for sports events on a daily basis follow a similar logic. Of course, there are other parameters in relation to the example we gave, but the logic is similar.
What Does a Sports Betting Odd Represent?
We can define the odds as a reflection of the probability that a certain thing will happen at a sports event based on the assessment made by analysts. It’s important to note that the offered odd is a precondition for the probability of an outcome in an individual sporting event. The assumption for the probability of the final outcome is made by a detailed analysis of certain factors.
Some of the tightening factors that affect odd settings are:
• Compositions of teams
• Absence of certain players in one or both teams
• Previous matches of the teams
• The situation on the pitch when it comes to play
• Does the match have more or less significance for one or both teams
Of course, the exception rule applies here as well. Usually, a high or low odds on a match has a reason why they are set that way. This usually happens when analysts come across some information that’s important for that match and create odds based on it. It often happens that even before the start of the match, there’s a drastic change in relation to the originally set odds, based on some new knowledge.
In relation to the possible difference in odds from bookmaker to bookmaker, you can also create your own subjective assessment of the “value bet“. In short, a “value bet“ is the difference between your personal assessment and the odds set by the bookmaker. You’ll read more about that in other future articles, here we will focus on odds.
The conclusion is that the bookmakers in their offer, and with the extent of odds set, represent a realistic relationship compared to the expected outcomes. It’s important to know that the subjective assessment of analysts and some information that they missed can play a big role in betting. Careful and detailed monitoring can lead you to value betting. A well-designed system can bring you great winnings.
Betting Odds: Their Impact on Finances
Odds directly affect your capital, because the higher the odds, the higher the eventual gain. However, high odds also mean a harder way to win. This is a kind of rule that applies to beginners. The big players, those who put in a lot of money, know that even those who set odds can make mistakes.
Odds are set by bookmakers, and the more matches, the greater the probability of error, as a lack of concentration can occur. Also, the reason for the error may be the wrong information that the analysts came across, which professional players will know how to exploit.
Odds Are Subject to Change
Changing odds is common for live betting because the one who sets them doesn’t have much time for analysis and has to make big changes, which can go up or down. Many players use a drop in odds as an indicator of betting by putting money in based on such information.
The drop in odds is considered by many to be a scam used by bookmakers. It’s believed that the change in odds is related to insider information that’s directly related to the outcome of an event, i.e. when bettors see that the odds are dropping (for example, on the host), they believe it affects the final outcome of the match and that it will be the final outcome of the match. However, such things can also be intentionally done by bookmakers, so those who have less experience in betting are practically led astray to what to play.
Factors Affecting Betting
Odds depend on several factors and are used as parameters during formation. Most of them are well known to all of us, and are used to determine odds:
• Compositions of teams (whether teams play with the best players or not).
• Expected absence of a player (information about that is very important).
• Head-to-head history (can be directly related to the strength of the teams).
• The condition of the field and whether or not the players are used to the forecasted weather conditions.
• Motivation of individuals in the team.
• Is the match of competitive importance or is it a friendly match.
If there’s possibly a difference between your subjective assessment and the bookmaker’s assessment, then you come to the type that’s worth betting – “value bet“.
Types of Betting Odds
In sports betting, three types of odds most often appear, plus one that gains more and more popularity:
• Decimal odds
• Fractional odds
• American odds
• Asian odds
Decimal odds are the most common type of odds in the betting market and are most popular in Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, so you can often find the term “European odds“ describing these types of odds. The potential gain is calculated as follows.
For example, your bet is 10 euros to a win of a certain club at odds of 1.44. Your winnings are calculated as follows €10 x 1.44 = €14.40.
As the name suggests, these odds are presented in fractions. For example, odds 4/9 correspond to decimal odds 1.44. This type of odds is most prevalent in the UK. A simple explanation is that when you place nine units as a 4/9 odds bet you can expect a net profit of four units, or when you add up with your stake it’s 13 units.
Each odds in fractions can be converted to decimal odds by a simple formula n1/n2 + 1; in this case 4/9 +1 = 1.44.
These odds are also known as “moneyline“. They are most commonly found in American bookies. They are unique in that they have a positive and a negative value and are marked with the signs (+) and (-). For example, a decimal odd of 2.00 is denoted as +100 or -100 in American odds.
When it comes to American odds, they are converted to the European format according to the following formula:
• positive American odds/100+1
• 100/negative American odds +1.
There are some other types of odds that are rare in most bookmakers, i.e. they are specific to one, in this case, the Asian market, and those are Chinese, Malaysian, and Indonesian types of odds. Not all bookmakers have such odds, as they are adjusted primarily to the market on this continent.
• Chinese odds – also known as “Hong Kong“ odds because they are most popular in these areas.
• Malaysian odds – another type of odds available in the Asian market. They are based on American odds, that is, they are analog to them.
• Indonesian odds – this is the third form of odds found in Asian bookmakers. Indonesian odds, just like American odds, can be both positive and negative.
Do Odds Determine the Winner?
Odds are very important for winning a bet, but they don’t have to be crucial. Of course, the exception rule applies here as well. Most often, the extension of odds determines the final outcome of an event. Odds are low or high for a clear reason. It’s important to note that analysts set them up this way due to the information they came to with their comprehensive analysis.
However, odds may change from the initial ones if important information emerges in the meantime that could affect the final outcome.
Online Bookmakers Offer Insight Into All Betting Odds
With online betting, all possible bookmakers that are current on the web are available to you.
If you play at a local bookmaker then you only have an insight into the odds it offers, but if you play online you can compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and choose where it’s best for you to put your money. This way you’ll have the biggest possible winnings on the match you have chosen to bet on if it turns out that you’ve predicted the outcome well.