Uruguay vs. Peru Prediction on September 4, 2025

Match info

This showdown—Uruguay vs. Peru on Matchday 17 of the South American section of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification—is more than just a game; it’s a pivotal moment in a tightly contested race for promotion to the upcoming premier international association football competition among the senior men’s national teams. As of mid-June 2025, Argentina, Ecuador, and Brazil had already secured their spots, while Uruguay (24 points) now stands just one point shy of promotion. With only two fixtures left, this match could very well seal fourth-placed Uruguay’s return to the World Cup—whether directly or at the very least via inter-confederation playoffs. Peru, in contrast, is all but eliminated: with only 12 points and far adrift of the playoff zone, its aspirations hang by a thread.

The match kicks off on Thursday, September 4, 2025, at 8:30 p.m. local time (Uruguay Time – UYT) at the historic Estadio Centenario in Montevideo — a symbol of Uruguay’s deep footballing roots.

Meeting statistics

Uruguay’s recent form & style of play

The “Sky Blue” approaches this fixture with cautious optimism. In mid-June, they ended a four-match winless streak by defeating Venezuela 20 at home, thrusting them closer to qualification. Across all qualifying matches, Uruguay’s record stands at six wins, six draws, and four losses—a solid foundation with defensive strength to match. They’ve scored 19 goals (1.19 per match) and conceded just 12 (0.75 per match), boasting one of the best defenses in the region.

Their recent home form: five played, two wins, two draws, one loss; overall in qualifiers: 10 matches with two wins, five draws, three losses. In summary, Uruguay’s approach remains built on solidity, transition, and capitalizing on set-piece opportunities. By looking at the odds of any reputable FIFA bookmaker, they are overwhelming favorites in the match against Peru.

Peru’s recent form & style of play

The “Red and White”, unfortunately, arrive as the underdogs in most senses. In 2025’s qualifiers, their results read: a 31 home win over Bolivia, followed by a 01 loss to Venezuela, a 00 draw away to Colombia, and another 00 draw at home against Ecuador. Their qualification hopes are slim: two wins, six draws, eight losses before Matchday 17, languishing in ninth place with 12 points.

Historically, Peru’s style has been described in glowing terms: technically elegant, adaptive, and physically sound—an identity forged from its varied geography and playing culture. However, recent form reveals a side struggling to translate those virtues into results.

Head-to-head

Across all competitions and matches, Uruguay has faced Peru around 70 times. The former dominates with 38 wins, while Peru has managed 16, and there have been 15 draws. The most recent World Cup qualifying encounter in March 2022 ended in a 1‑0 Uruguay victory in Montevideo.

Match analytics

This match could be decisive in Uruguay’s qualification journey. A draw might be enough to wrap up a spot, while a win would leave no doubt. For Peru, it’s likely the last realistic chance to salvage something from this campaign. Against a disciplined and confident Uruguayan side, Peru will need to summon that historic elegance and technical flair to stay alive.

Given Uruguay’s dominant home record, defensive solidity, and Peru’s struggles to score away from home (just four goals in eight away matches this qualifying campaign), the value lies in markets that favor a low-scoring Uruguay win.

Tip: Uruguay win to nil: Yes at 1.81 odds on Frank Casino.