Rory McIlroy vs. Tommy Fleetwood Prediction on January 16, 2026

Match info

The Dubai Invitational 2026 is part of the DP World Tour’s International Swing and serves as one of the first European Tour-sanctioned events of the 2026 season. Played over four days, it brings together a strong, limited field of international professionals alongside amateur players in a Pro-Am format before the final professional competition.

This event holds added prestige because it acts as a season-kickoff tournament — offering early Race to Dubai points and shaping initial momentum for the year. Winning or performing strongly here can set a positive tone that carries into bigger Rolex Series and major events later in the season. Unlike some early calendar events that draw weaker fields, the Dubai Invitational boasts marquee names and high expectations, making its results meaningful for rankings and confidence.

The Dubai Invitational 2026 is contested from Thursday, January 15, 2026, to Sunday, January 18, 2026. Daily rounds typically begin around 07:00 local time (Gulf Standard Time – GST), especially for early rounds that start from the first tee and split groups.

The tournament is held at the Dubai Creek Golf & Yacht Club — a challenging parkland course known for its scenic water features, precise shot-making requirements, and tricky greens that test all aspects of a tour professional’s game. The men’s Dubai Invitational 2026 is a great early-season test for golf fans and bettors alike. If you’re comparing odds and markets across different sites, check out the top 10 best bookies for golf betting and current lines. Here, we’ll focus on the top-2 favorites to win the UAE event: Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood.

Meeting statistics

Current form and & playstyle: Rory McIlroy

Rory McIlroy, one of the top stars in the sport, enters the 2026 season with a powerful blend of confidence and precision. Renowned for his accuracy off the tee and aggressive course management, the Northern Irish player has historically played some of his best golf on courses that reward distance with control — a combination that suits Dubai Creek perfectly. Notably, he finished runner-up to Tommy Fleetwood at the inaugural 2024 edition and returns again with a strong competitive drive, carrying forward the rhythm from his recent DP World Tour and Race to Dubai campaigns.

Despite a narrow defeat in the 2025 DP World Tour Championship playoff, McIlroy’s balance of power and strategic savvy remains a defining feature of his game heading into 2026.

Current form & playstyle: Tommy Fleetwood  

Tommy Fleetwood — the defending Dubai Invitational champion — brings a quietly methodical but dynamic style to this week’s competition. Known for his smooth ball-striking and excellent wedge play, The Englishman excels in conditions where precise iron play and steady putting can make the difference on tight scoring lines. His victory here in the event’s first edition, where he edged McIlroy, underscores both his comfort with the course and his capacity to thrive when both contenders are under pressure.

Fleetwood’s recent form includes solid finishes across major tour stops and a big win on the PGA Tour at the Tour Championship in 2025, reflecting a well-rounded game that can adapt to varying course demands.

Head-to-head

The head-to-head history between McIlroy and Fleetwood — though not overwhelmingly developed in the context of this specific tournament — carries meaningful context. Their match-ups often revolve around tight scoring battles, with McIlroy’s power game pitted against Fleetwood’s ball-striking and finesse. In fact, in the very first edition of the Dubai Invitational, Fleetwood narrowly bested McIlroy for the title, hinting at a competitive rivalry on this course.

Beyond this event, their records against each other across global tournaments reflect frequent high-level encounters, often with neither player having a decisive overall edge — making any head-to-head contest between them intriguing and finely balanced.

Match analytics

Both Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood have excellent chances of being near the top of the leaderboard after all four rounds. Their combined power, course acumen, and comfort with the conditions at Dubai Creek make them prime candidates to lead or share the lead through each round — especially in a smaller, competitive field where scoring tightness is key.

It’s highly likely that McIlroy will be among the strongest performers through the first half of the tournament. McIlroy’s high-scoring upside makes him likely to be near the top by mid-week.

Tip: Lead After Round 2 – McIlroy, Rory at 5.60 odds on Campeonbet.