Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira Prediction on October 4, 2025

Match info

UFC 320 on Saturday, October 4, 2025, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, is being built as a major MMA light heavyweight title rematch, headlined by Magomed Ankalaev from Russia defending his belt against Alex Pereira from Brazil. The intrigue lies in their first meeting at UFC 313, where Ankalaev won a decision to take the title. Pereira, a former multi-division champion and heavy hitter, seeks to reclaim the 205 lb crown.

This main card fight (7 p.m. local time /Pacifit Time – PT/) carries the weight not just of a title defense, but of redemption and narrative: Pereira wants to avenge what many saw as a close decision loss, while Ankalaev wants to cement his legitimacy as champion, and every platform reviewed as the best MMA betting site believes, looking at its odds, that the Russian will do so. It’s a crossroads bout in the division.

It’s important to mention that UFC 320 (initially slated to be a “Noche UFC” event in Guadalajara, celebrating Mexican Independence Day, but delays in Arena Guadalajara’s construction forced the move to Las Vegas) isn’t just about Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2. It also includes a bantamweight title defense with Merab Dvalishvili versus Cory Sandhagen, making it a double-title night. Also, other significant matchups indicate UFC 320 is positioned as a marquee MMA event in late 2025.

Meeting statistics

Current form & style: Magomed Ankalaev

Ankalaev comes into this rematch as the reigning light heavyweight champion. His trajectory in MMA has been marked by methodical pressure striking, strong positional control, and a sharp wrestling or grappling base when needed. In their first fight, he showed his ability to mix distance boxing, clinch work, and control time to steadily grind down Pereira. Ankalaev tends to fight with a forward engine, closing distance, employing combinations, and leveraging his grappling to neutralize opponents who try to pick apart his offense. His style isn’t about explosive flash as much as controlled dominance — taking favorable positions, wearing down threats, and minimizing risks.

In recent appearances, he’s looked composed, confident, and tactically disciplined. Ankalaev’s camp talk ahead of UFC 320 has been aggressive — his coaches openly dismissing Pereira’s power, framing their fighter as superior in technique and consistency, and aiming for a more definitive result this time, rather than a razor-close decision. He has also hinted at long-term ambitions, such as possibly stepping up eventually to heavyweight after consolidating his legacy at light heavyweight.

Current form & style: Alex Pereira

Pereira is one of those fighters defined by pure power and finishing ability. His base is in elite-level striking—his kickboxing pedigree gives him fast, sharp, heavy hands, and the ability to deliver concussion-level blows. Historically, many of his wins came by knockout. In MMA, Pereira’s game has been around using that power to end fights before they go long, coupling that with range control and clever striking angles.

However, his transition to light heavyweight and his first fight vs. Ankalaev exposed some vulnerabilities: in their bout at UFC 313, Pereira later admitted he fought at “40 percent” (i.e., far from his peak) due to undisclosed issues. Although he landed volume of low kicks and showed flashes of offense, Pereira couldn’t decisively control the fight or thwart Ankalaev’s pressure and positional game.

For the rematch, Pereira will likely lean even harder into his striking strengths—looking for early damage, explosive entries, and fight-finishing combinations. He must find a way to avoid extended grappling exchanges or controlled clinch time, which play to Ankalaev’s strengths. Mentally, he has framed this as a bounce-back opportunity and has expressed that his earlier outing did not reflect his ceiling.

Head-to-head

Thus far, they’ve fought once inside the UFC: at UFC 313 on March 8, 2025, where Ankalaev defeated Pereira by unanimous decision to capture the light heavyweight title. The judges scored it 49-46, 48-47, 48-47.

Statistically, Pereira landed a high volume of significant strikes (especially low kicks) but could not stop Ankalaev from controlling much of the bout. Ankalaev managed control time, clinch, and distance to blunt Pereira’s offense. Some observers argue that Pereira’s output in the later rounds was strong, but not enough to overcome the cumulative damage and positional deficit.

In terms of “head-to-head” record, that gives Ankalaev a 1–0 edge in their UFC matchups. Since that’s the only time they’ve met, there’s no longer history of direct revenge wins yet, making this rematch especially compelling.

Match analytics

Ankalaev’s style is grounded, pressure-based, methodical with a grappling safety net; Pereira does best when he can keep it standing, strike explosively, and avoid being chained into grappling scrambles.

If the fight goes the distance, Ankalaev is strongly favored. His steady output, clinch control, and safer style suit long fights and sway judges. If it ends early, Pereira is far more likely the one delivering the stoppage. His knockout power remains among the most dangerous in all of MMA, and Ankalaev has shown vulnerability to being clipped when he overcommits.

Our prediction: Ankalaev by decision again, similar to UFC 313, though with a narrower margin for error this time. Pereira will have his moments, especially early, but Ankalaev’s durability, control game, and ability to neutralize power shots should carry him over five rounds. Tip: Winning method, Magomed Ankalaev by decision, at 2.36 odds on Svenbet.

Results of the forecast

Forecast failed. Winner - Pereira A.