Edwards vs. Covington vs. Covington Prediction on December 16, 2023

Match info

The main event of the men’s mixed martial arts event UFC 296 on Saturday night, December 16, in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, will be a welterweight title fight between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington. The bout is to be held at T-Mobile Arena, starting at 9 p.m. local time.

Meeting statistics

Edwards is the reigning champion right now, while Covington is in third place in the ranking. Bookmakers with iOS apps prefer the former fighter.

The current form of Edwards

With just one loss in his career, Leon Edwards was the BAMMA league champion when he joined the UFC in 2014. By 2019, he was at the top of the rankings, but then something strange occurred to him: six bouts in which he was scheduled to compete were called off, and when he did make it to the octagon, Edwards’ prodding of Belal Muhammad’s eye caused the fight to end in a no contest.

The British guy didn’t have to be too depressed, though, since fate gave him everything back in full. He used the fight with Nate Diaz as a warm-up before going on to defeat Kamaru Usman twice, win the belt, and defend it in a rematch. Edwards was losing the first fight to the Nigerian-American by one “wicket“, but in the final moments, he caught Usman with a high kick, knocking him out for the win. Edwards appeared to be losing the second bout too, but the refs awarded him the win by majority vote.

Edwards excels at stand-up, but he lacks strength in groundwork and cardio, particularly when compared to Covington in these areas. But after two bouts with Usman, Edwards felt much more confident, and he learned how to stick with his plan through to the very end.

The current form of Covington

Colby Covington is one of the most well-liked MMA fighters in the world and the biggest “bad boy“ of the UFC. The American isn’t afraid of getting in the “mud“, and he can give master courses when the time comes to trash talk.

His fighting prowess is unmatched; he has been a strong contender for the welterweight title for a very long time, but when Covington defeated Rafael dos Anjos in a decision in 2018, he was already the interim champion. However, his two attempts to win the title of legitimate champion were fruitless as he was unable to overcome Kamaru Usman on both occasions.

In March of last year, Covington had and also won his most recent bout, a five-round decision against Jorge Masvidal, his then-best friend who turned arch-enemy. This will be Covington’s third try to win a title battle, this one against Edwards. Additionally, it appears that he’ll have an easier time fighting the Brit than he was with Usman.

Comparison of Edwards and Covington

While it’s tempting to describe this match as a traditional hitter vs. wrestler, that wouldn’t be completely accurate. The outcome of this bout is a little unpredictable because Edwards has improved his defense against submissions and Covington no longer despises fighting in the standing position.

Match analytics

We can quibble with the bookies here as they considered Edwards the favorite as soon as the market opened.

Although the champion is quite skilled on the mat, he’s still not on the same level as elite wrestlers. If Covington isn’t one, then who is? This is arguably the most important factor, but there are a few other minor details that should be mentioned as well since these always determine the result. For example, Edwards’ cardio declines, he lacks a knockout punch (the memorable one from the championship bout was the only one in several years), and he consistently awards an edge to rivals; the last item will be like signing his death sentence in a bout with Covington. As a result, Covington’s objective is crystal clear: to relentlessly push his opponent, and threaten with takedowns until eventually forcing Edwards to the ground.

Even though Edwards is deemed as a favorite, try your luck with the following bet: Method of Victory – Covington by Submission with odds of 15.00 on Sportingbet.

Results of the forecast

Forecast failed. Victory Edwards