Bagnaia vs. Martín Prediction on August 20, 2023

Match info

After an exhilarating Silverstone, when Aprilia regained the top step at one of their iconic tracks, it’s time to fly to Spielberg, Austria, and the Red Bull Ring, which is more frequently conquered by Ducati and KTM. In reality, the winning order of the last five races at the venue, dating back to the 2020 Austrian Grand Prix for motorsport, has been Ducati - KTM - Ducati - KTM - Ducati. On MotoGP’s return to the Red Bull Ring, the early Borgo Panigale days of glory aren’t entirely finished, but they do face tough competition. Does that provide any hints as to what we might expect from the Styria-based circuit this season, which begins on Friday, August 18, and ends on Sunday, August 20, with the main race launching at 2 p.m. local time? Perhaps.

Both home soil and happy hunting grounds for some riders, constructors, and punters at the online bookies with the best betting bonuses in 2023. MotoGP returns to Austria for what may be a crucial weekend.

Meeting statistics

Francesco Bagnaia (Ducati Lenovo Team), the defending champion, won in Austria last year, and following a performance at Silverstone when he arguably had the luxury of not pushing to the edge but very much still did, he must come in as a favorite this year as well. There’s also less pressure given that a tougher Tissot Sprint in the UK provided a significant opportunity to gain ground on major competitors on Sunday. It’s obvious that “Pecco” is the contender being targeted.

However, Jorge Martín (Prima Pramac Racing) won his first race in the premier class at the Red Bull Ring in 2021. In fact, in his rookie season, he began both races at the Red Bull Ring from the first row, won the first race, and finished third in the second. After the British GP shuffle, he’s the closest in the chase behind Bagnaia, having improved as a rider and being in excellent form by 2023. It wasn’t the number 89’s lack of speed, or even his own mistake, that caused him to lose out on significant points after also being knocked back down the order on Sunday at Silverstone. But that’s how the biscuit crumbled, and after losing 10 points to Bagnaia in the Silverstone Grand Prix event, he undoubtedly travels to Austria believing it’s a good chance to make up ground... on both Saturday and Sunday.

Some others who are competing face significant stakes too. Red Bull KTM Factory Racing’s Brad Binder is likely to comment on that. In 2021, the South African claimed KTM’s second and most recent home victory at the venue, taking a chance on one of the most suspenseful and, possibly, best, triumphs ever. He and his comrade Jack Miller will both be all-out efforts to win more domestic glory for the Austrian factory. They’ve already visited “parc fermé” a good number of times and have experienced serious speed in 2023, whether it was wet, dry, or sketchy. This is the one spot where both riders will be laser-focused on winning additional medals.

Augusto Fernández and Pol Espargaró of GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3, who both finished in the points at Silverstone, are also eligible for the home-field advantage. The latter pulled together an excellent weekend on his much-anticipated return from injury, while the former hasn’t finished outside them all year.

Match analytics

Yes, there are plenty more riders who are capable of claiming the Austrian Grand Prix. This is, say, Miguel Oliveira. Aiming high after winning at the Red Bull Ring in 2020 while racing for KTM, the Portuguese narrowly missed the podium at Silverstone. Raúl Fernández, a teammate, finished in the top ten at the British GP as well, but he wants to keep improving. Then there’s Marco Bezzecchi, who made his first error in a while at Silverstone when he slipped out while chasing Bagnaia, ultimately losing 20 points to the leader of the championship. But Bezzecchi’s performance this year has been more about relentless speed, regardless of the setting, than it has been about track records.

We predict a close race between Bagnaia, Martín, and Binder. As soon as QuinnBet releases odds for the event in Spielberg, pick one from the trio to take the win.