2025–26 Premier League Predictions: Top 6 Finish, Relegation Battles & Surprise Packages

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KEY TAKEAWAYS:

• Liverpool favored to retain the title – Despite losing key players like Alexander-Arnold, Díaz, and Jota, Liverpool’s strong recruitment and Arne Slot’s successful debut season put them as the top contender for the 2025–26 Premier League crown, ahead of Arsenal, Manchester City, and Chelsea.
• Champions League race still wide open – Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City, and Chelsea are the most likely top-4 finishers, but Aston Villa, Newcastle, and even Crystal Palace are seen as dark horses, while Manchester United and Tottenham have only slim chances based on last season’s struggles.
• Promoted teams at high relegation risk – Leeds, Burnley, and Sunderland are all predicted to return to the Championship, continuing the recent trend of immediate relegation for all promoted sides, with Wolves, West Ham, and Fulham also facing potential danger.

Because Liverpool did so well in 2024–25, everyone will be watching to see if Arne Slot’s team can win again. Arsenal and Manchester City will also be trying to fare better than they did last season.

Last season, there was a hard fight for the top 4 spots. This season, it might become a top 5 for Champions League qualifying after English teams did well in Europe. A lot of clubs will be trying to get back into European football.

We bid adieu to Leicester City, Ipswich Town, and Southampton in May. Now we welcome back Leeds United, Burnley, and Sunderland. Will the promoted teams stay up this time, or will we see all 3 go straight back down for the third year in a row?

It gets harder and harder to estimate who’ll win the Premier League. For instance, who would’ve thought that Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur would finish as low as they did last year?

Let’s get down to the details of the 2025–26 Premier League projected placement outcomes.

Who’ll Come Out on Top in the Premier League?

We all thought the title race would be fascinating last season, and we thought that Man City, Arsenal, and Liverpool would push each other like they did the year before. But Liverpool ended up winning their second Premier League title and their 20th English top-flight trophy, tying the record, easier than expected. They were in first place with 4 games left.

These 4 will highlight the Premier League again, and that’s not something we say. The outright odds of every bookmaker with Premier League offers go in the same direction.

Some supercomputers said that Arne Slot had just a 5.1% probability of winning the Premier League in his first season at Anfield last summer. However, it makes sense that the Dutchman now has a considerably greater chance of winning the major prize again. There have been a lot of changes on “The Reds’” side of the pitch this summer. Trent Alexander-Arnold and Luis Díaz have left, and the club and the world will feel the loss of Diogo Jota for a long time. New players Florian Wirtz, Miloš Kerkez, Jeremie Frimpong, and Hugo Ekitiké give Liverpool hope that they’ll keep going, and we think they will. If you ask us, the Anfield team is the team most likely to win the title.

People are starting to use Arsenal’s 3 straight second-place finishes as a reason to make jokes with them. It seems harsh because coming second in such a strong league is a great accomplishment, but the fans will expect this to be the year “The Gunners” finally put it all together and go even better. Viktor Gyökeres is the new number 9 for Mikel Arteta’s team, which is also a big deal. How often the big Swede can score will have a huge impact on how strong their title charge is. Bookmakers think Arsenal have a lot better chance of winning the league this season than they did last season, but they also think they’ll finish second for the fourth season in a row.

Last season, Man City were trying to win their fifth title in a row, but they fell short, especially after Rodri hurt his knee early in the season and missed practically all of it. But now he’s back, and Pep Guardiola will expect his team to reach the high standards he sets for them. Last season, experts said “The Citizens” had an 80% or better chance of winning the league, but that has predictably dropped a lot since then.

Chelsea players are feeling good after winning the FIFA Club World Cup last month. They’ll be trying to win their first Premier League title since 2016–17. Enzo Maresca’s youthful team is still growing quickly, but no one knows if Cole Palmer and the rest of the team can find the stability they need to fight for the crown. We don’t think “The Blues” will win the league; they’ll probably come in fourth again.

Bookmaker Expert analysis says that Aston Villa and Newcastle United are the only other teams that have a certain chance of winning. Both teams are about as likely to win as Chelsea. It’s doubtful that Manchester United and Tottenham will go from the bottom half of the table to first place in just one year. Don’t worry, guys, there’s always next season.

Who’ll Make It to the Champions League?

The fight for Europe is going to be much more open this season, much like last season.

We don’t know if the Premier League will have a fifth spot for the Champions League again. It will depend on how its teams do in Europe this season. Right now, these numbers are based on needing to finish in the top 4, with fifth place getting a spot in the Europa League. So let’s start from the premise that the Premier League will have 4 representatives in the 2026–27 UCL.

Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, and Chelsea are the most likely teams to finish in the top 4 again, but there’s still a lot of optimism for other teams. Aston Villa missed out on the Champions League after losing to Manchester United on the last day of May. This time, though, they have an even greater chance, in our opinion, to make it into the top 4.

Newcastle may be focused on frantically attempting to keep star striker Alexander Isak. Bookmaker-Expert doesn’t deal in transfer rumors, thus we believe that Eddie Howe’s team can still compete for European slots even though they have to deal with a Champions League campaign as well. Most of the time, “The Magpies” are expected to finish sixth, but they can get extra UCL football if they finish in the top 4. We know that for sure.

Crystal Palace’s excellent conclusion to last season, which saw them win their first major trophy, the FA Cup, has made us more confident in our predictions for 2025–26. This is why we give “The Eagles” a better chance of finishing in the top 4 than last year. They’ll be able to do it before Brighton & Hove Albion.

It will take a lot for Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest to go close to the top 4, but they have a greater chance now than they had last summer. Back then, “The Cherries’” chances were weak, and “Forest’s” were even slimmer. Both of them had great campaigns in 2024–25, which made us and many other experts pay more attention.

Because of their enormous fanbase at home and abroad, Manchester United have to get back into the Champions League soon, but Ruben Amorim’s team only has a slim chance of doing so this season, and Thomas Frank’s Spurs have an even smaller chance. These forecasts are mostly based on how poorly they did last time. We can’t ignore that.

Who’ll Be Demoted from the Premier League?

We can already hear you saying, “Not the 3 promoted teams again!”

Yes, the last 2 seasons have seen all 3 promoted teams go straight back down, which has only happened once before in Premier League history and not since 1997–98. It’s too early to conclude that the difference between the top flight and the second tier is definitely a problem, but it has made things harder for the rookies.

If you’re a fan of Leeds, Burnley, or Sunderland and want to hear what the experts think, you might want to look away now. We’re sorry, but we’re honestly sending them all back to the Championship. Or, to put it another way, we think those are the most likely 3.

Even so, Leeds and Burnley are still more likely to stay alive than not. We think Daniel Farke’s “Whites” have a better than 50% probability of not going down, but we don’t think Scott Parker’s “Clarets” have much of a chance. Sunderland won the Championship play-offs in a way that surprised some people, but they’ll be relegated at the end of the ongoing campaign. However, with their great transfer window on paper, they can try to prove us wrong.

Wolverhampton had a terrible start to the season, but things got a lot better when Vítor Pereira took over as manager. However, losing Matheus Cunha to Manchester United is a big loss. “Wolves” are the fourth most likely team to go down.

When Graham Potter came to West Ham partway through last season, he didn’t have quite the same immediate effect. This summer, “The Hammers” also lost a vital player when Mohammed Kudus left for Spurs. After his first preseason with the team, Potter believes he can get them to play better, but West Ham might easily be sent down.

Fulham had a good year in 2024–25, but we won’t be that surprised if they are a lot less happy in 2025–26, when they’ll be fighting to stay alive.

Pros and Cons of 2025–26 Premier League Title Favorites

One thing is certain: whether we’re talking about title contenders, Champions League contenders, or relegation contenders, the Premier League remains the most-watched domestic football league in the world.