Turkey vs. Bulgaria Prediction on November 15, 2025

Match info

Group E’s winner qualifies directly for the 2026 FIFA World Cup; the runner-up goes to the UEFA play-offs. Turkey enters matchday 9 as the host and in second place, and firmly in the qualification fight, while Bulgaria sits bottom and already needs a shock result to change the group’s narrative. In short, three points keep Turkey’s direct-qualification hopes for the most prestigious international men’s football tournament alive and would all but end Bulgaria’s faint chances. New European bookmakers barely listed any heavier single-match favorite than Turkey in the qualifying campaign this week.

So, Turkey vs Bulgaria (2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifying – UEFA, Group E, MD9) will be played on Saturday, November 15, 2025, at 20:00 TRT (Turkey Time, local time) at Matlı Stadyumu in Bursa.

Meeting statistics

Current form and & playstyle: Turkey

After a wild opening window—winning a 3–2 shootout away to Georgia and then being blitzed 0–6 by Spain—“The Crescent-Stars” reset impressively. They thrashed Bulgaria 6–1 in Sofia, then overpowered Georgia 4–1 at home.

That arc tells you plenty: they’re front-foot and vertical in transition, willing to commit numbers on counters and set-pieces, and they don’t mind a high-tempo game that can look chaotic but produces chances. The flip side is defensive volatility against elite ball-retention sides (as Spain exposed), yet against Bulgaria and Georgia, they created waves of chances and shared goals across the attack. Momentum and confidence coming into MD9 are clearly with the hosts.

Current form & playstyle: Bulgaria

“The Lions’” campaign has been grim. They were dismantled 0–4 by Spain and 1–6 by Turkey, results that underline structural issues: long spells without the ball, difficulty defending wide overloads and set-plays, and an attack that rarely strings together sustained pressure.

Bulgaria’s best passages have come when they sit deep and try to hit direct balls into channels, but they’ve struggled to progress the ball under pressure and have leaked goals late as legs tire. This is a side searching for control and confidence more than asserting a defined proactive style.

Head-to-head

Recent H2H heavily favors Turkey: 6–1 (Sofia, 11 Oct 2025), plus two earlier friendlies: 4–0 (2015) and 2–0 (2012). Looking at the full historic record (dating back to 1925), Turkey has won significantly more head-to-head matches against Bulgaria: these two have played 22 matches with Turkey having 14 wins, Bulgaria four wins, and four draws.

Match analytics

Turkey to win, likely by multiple goals. The form line (6–1 in Sofia and 4–1 vs Georgia right after) plus Bulgaria’s defensive record points to a home win with a margin.

Tip: Winning margin, Turkiye by 2 at 3.95 odds on Ivibet.