Speed Skating at 2026 Winter Olympics – Giovannini vs Stolz Mass Start Betting Prediction

Match info

Event overview:
The men’s mass start is the most tactical and volatile event in long-track speed skating. Unlike time-trial races, medals are decided through positioning, pack awareness, and perfectly timed accelerations. At the Olympic level, this race often becomes a clash between endurance specialists and explosive skaters, with both trying to bend the race to their strengths. As the final speed skating medal event of Milano Cortina 2026, it also carries symbolic weight — a last chance for nations to close the Games on ice with authority.

If you want a reliable reference point before diving into race dynamics, the Bookmaker-Expert Olympics betting guide is a top-notch overview of Olympic formats, markets, and discipline-specific nuances.

When: Saturday, February 21, 2026 — 16:40 local time (CET, Central European Time).

Where: Milano Speed Skating Arena, Milan, Italy, part of the Milano Ice Park complex.

Meeting statistics

Current form & playstyle: Andrea Giovannini
The Italian skater arrives as the most stable mass-start performer across recent seasons. His strength lies in reading the pack’s flow and conserving energy while still collecting intermediate points when needed. He rarely panics when the pace drops or surges, which is critical in Olympic finals where false moves are common. Racing at home adds another layer: Giovannini is comfortable taking responsibility when the race needs shaping, rather than reacting late and hoping for space in the sprint. His recent form suggests he’s peaking at exactly the right moment.

Current form & playstyle: Jordan Stolz
An American skater is the wild card among the favorites — not because of inconsistency, but because of how different his toolkit is. Known primarily for his dominance in shorter distances, Stolz brings unmatched acceleration and top-end speed into a format that rarely features pure sprinters as medal favorites. When mass-start races turn conservative, and the pack stays compact deep into the final laps, Stolz becomes extremely dangerous. The question is not his speed, but whether he can avoid being forced into early work by more traditional mass-start specialists. If he reaches the final lap in the front group with space to launch, very few can match his kick.

Dark horse: Even as a dark horse, Bart Swings can’t be ignored. The defending Olympic champion thrives in high-pressure, tactical chaos. If the race becomes fragmented, with repeated attacks and regroupings, his patience and experience can quietly move him into podium position. The Belgian athlete no longer enters as the automatic favorite, but that may actually suit him — fewer eyes, fewer forced decisions, and more freedom to strike late if others hesitate.

Head-to-head:
This matchup is a contrast in philosophy. Giovannini’s advantage lies in race management — staying protected, choosing moments carefully, and avoiding unnecessary energy loss. Stolz, by contrast, represents raw finishing power. If the final unfolds into a controlled sprint scenario, Stolz holds the edge. If the race demands repeated positioning battles and mid-race accelerations, Giovannini’s experience and patience give him the upper hand.

Match analytics

We predict that Andrea Giovannini will win gold, with Jordan Stolz posing the biggest late-race threat. Why? Olympic mass starts are often decided before the sprint even begins. Giovannini’s ability to stay calm, avoid tactical traps, and still respond when the decisive move happens makes him the safest pick for gold — especially on home ice. Stolz’s speed is unmatched, but only if the race allows him to use it cleanly. Bart Swings remains a serious podium spoiler if the favorites misjudge each other.

Tip: Who Will Win: Andrea Giovannini – Yes at 5.25 odds on Linebet.