Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras vs. Club Atlético River Plate Prediction on September 24, 2025

Match info

Brazil’s Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras and Argentina’s Club Atlético River Plate will lock horns in the second leg of the quarter-finals of the 2025 Copa CONMEBOL Libertadores on Wednesday, September 24, 2025, at 8:30 p.m. BRT (Brasília Time – local time). It’s the 66th edition of South America’s premier men’s football club competition – commonly known just as the Copa Libertadores.

For clubs like Palmeiras and River Plate, performing well in the competition is part of their identity and legacy. The first leg was won by Palmeiras 2-1 away at Buenos Aires. The second leg at the Allianz Parque in São Paulo is decisive: River Plate must overcome the deficit at home to advance, while Palmeiras aim to defend their advantage and close out the tie.

This particular match is also high-stakes because both teams are among the continent’s elite. A win (or progression) can define momentum, morale, and international reputation for the rest of the season.

Meeting statistics

Recent form & playstyle: Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras

“Big Green” are entering the second leg with noticeable confidence, having taken a narrow but valuable away win in Buenos Aires. In the first leg, they struck early — a goal by their captain Gustavo Gómez from a set piece demonstrated their threat from dead balls and tactical organisation. Then Vitor Roque added another in the opening half, showing that they can combine individual attacking talent and clinical finishing.

Defensively, Palmeiras under Abel Ferreira tend to be compact and disciplined, especially in big matches where away goals matter. They are not shy about allowing possession, particularly earlier, and then hitting teams either on transitions or via set-pieces. Their group stage record was very strong: scoring a lot and not conceding much.

Offensively, they rely on a forward line with strong finishers like Vitor Roque, supported by midfielders capable of both creation and work rate. They also benefit from strategic planning: exploiting mismatches, pressing at key moments, and using their squad depth. With the lead in the tie, they’ll likely try to manage the game, make it difficult for River Plate to open them up, and control pace and space. Considering all that, the fact that Brazil bookmakers put them in the role of the favorites doesn’t surprise us.

Recent form & playstyle: Club Atlético River Plate

“The Millionaires”, coached by Marcelo Gallardo, are in a position where they must be more proactive in the second leg. In recent matches, including domestic and continental fixtures, River have shown resilience under pressure, especially at home. However, their first-leg performance against Palmeiras saw them struggle early: they had tactical uncertainties, conceded from set plays, and were vulnerable in the transitions.

That said, they displayed character: River pulled one back late in the first leg through Lucas Martínez Quarta, which keeps hope alive. Their style tends to emphasize attacking creativity, good ball possession, especially in midfield, and leveraging the home support to press and try to force openings. But their defense sometimes struggles under sustained pressure or when facing quick transitions, especially from a team like Palmeiras, which is strong in counter-attack and set pieces.

For the second leg, River will likely need to balance urgency with caution: pushing forward to overturn the aggregate score, but also being wary of overexposing themselves to counterattacks and conceding away goals, which could be fatal given Palmeiras’ strength away.

Head-to-head

They’ve met at least eight to 12 times in various competitions, but only three times in official matches, all since 2021 onward. Among those, Palmeiras have won two, River Plate one. The average goals per match in their H2H is 2.7.

Match analytics

Palmeiras come into the second leg at Allianz Parque with a 2-1 away advantage. That result in Buenos Aires is massive: not only do they carry a one-goal lead, but they also scored twice away, which forces River Plate to be more aggressive. Palmeiras under Abel Ferreira are highly pragmatic in two-leg ties; they excel at managing advantages, tightening spaces, and punishing opponents in transitions.

River Plate, even though away from home in São Paulo, will likely need to push harder than they’re comfortable with. That exposes them to counterattacks, especially against a side that has sharp finishers like Vitor Roque.

Likely outcome: Palmeiras to qualify, with the second leg ending either in a draw or a narrow Palmeiras win (1-1 or 2-1). River Plate will probably score, but overcoming both the deficit and Palmeiras’ defensive solidity in Brazil is a steep task.

Tip: Which team to score, Both teams at 2.16 odds on Sven-play.