Portugal vs. Slovenia Prediction on July 1, 2024

Match info

Maybe this is too fast for some football aficionados, but the 2024 UEFA European Football Championship for men has already reached its round of 16. With four more victories, the remaining countries can claim the European crown. After winning the trophy at Euro 2016, Portugal would be claiming its second continental championship. Therefore, their quest for success at UEFA Euro 2024 in Germany will continue when they play Slovenia (where they are overwhelming favorites as per betting sites in Portugal) on Monday, July 1, at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt at 9 p.m. local time.

Meeting statistics

The current form of Portugal

After two games, Roberto Martínez’s team had already secured first place in Group F with victories over the Czech Republic (2-1) and Turkey (3-0). This meant that Portugal could rest players for its last group match, resulting in a total of eight changes from the Spanish expert. That did, however, cost “A Seleção das Quinas” (the “Team of the Escutcheons”) its perfect record, as Georgia shocked them with a 2-0 victory, breaking Portugal’s 12-match winning streak in competitive play, which began in the Euro 2024 qualifying campaign. Portugal’s goalies were forced to take out a ball from their net in two of its three games in the group. Granted, Portugal’s 0-2 loss to Georgia was due to a rotated line-up, but they also gave up a goal against the Czech Republic. They’ve faced a total of 25 shots in the preliminary stage.

Under Martínez, Portugal has an intriguing quality in that it frequently adopts the same formation as its opponent. They use a back three when playing against a back three or five; when facing a back four, they adopt a setting we’d anticipate from Portugal. They have thus far played in Euro 2024 using a back three two times and a back four one time.

Portugal should so adopt a 4-2-3-1 formation for this match, similar to what it did against Turkey. That starting XI as a whole might also be repeated. Bruno Fernandes should play just behind Cristiano Ronaldo, who should have Bernardo Silva and Rafael Leão flanking him up front. João Palhinha and Vitinha, who are deeper in the midfield, maybe the preferred double pivot. In a back four, Nuno Mendes plays on the left, and João Cancelo is preferred over Diogo Dalot at right back. The center-back duo of Pepe and Rúben Dias will cover for Diogo Costa in goal.

The current form of Slovenia

Slovenia, on the other hand, overcame Hungary on goal differential to become one of the four best third-place teams to guarantee a spot in the round of 16. Situated in Group C, “Zmajčeki” (the “Dragons”) faced tight competition against England, Denmark, and Serbia. Even though Slovenia drew all three of its matches, that proved to be sufficient. They achieved a historic feat by qualifying out of the group and making it to the main tournament’s knockout stages for the first time ever. Matjaž Kek’s men averaged barely 32% possession in the group stage; only two teams had ever advanced to the European Championship knockout stages with a lower average.

Slovenia scored in two of its final three games in the group stage, despite not winning a single game. In its last group game, England was the only team to prevent Slovenia from qualifying, but Slovenia simply needed to draw goalless.

Slovenia plays a pretty conventional 4-4-2, thus a change of direction would be extremely unexpected. Making too many changes to Slovenia’s starting lineup would also be unexpected. In their three games thus far, Kek has started with the same lineup, but Erik Janža’s suspension for receiving too many yellow cards will necessitate a change. Jure Balkovec is expected to start in his place at left back, with Jaka Bijol and Vanja Drkušić playing through the middle and Žan Karničnik on the other wing. Adam Gnezda Čerin, who plays with Timi Max Elšnik, who’s more creative, is a true fighter in midfield. Benjamin Šeško and Andraž Šporar will start up front; the former has six chances created at Euro 2024.

Head-to-head

When these two teams played in a friendly in March, Slovenia handed Martínez his first defeat as coach of Portugal. This is a very uncommon matchup because that was the first time these two countries had ever met.

Match analytics

We believe that Portugal will show its full strength against Slovenia when they meet on Monday and that it will start to dominate the pitch since the referee’s first whistle.

Tip: Portugal to Win Both Halves – Yes, with odds of +230 at WynnBET.