NK Olimpija Ljubljana vs. NK Maribor Prediction on May 3, 2025

Match info

Round 33 of the 2024–25 Prva liga Telemach will bring a crucial and direct clash for the title of Slovenian men’s football club champions. With a Saturday (May 3 at 8:15 p.m. local time) win against NK Maribor at home at Stadion Stožice, the current leaders, NK Olimpija Ljubljana, would confirm the title. Some calculations are still in play, but the likelihood that anyone other than the players of a team from the nation’s capital would finish the season at the top of the table is minimal. That’s why betting sites in Slovenia put Olimpija in the position of the favorites for the biggest Slovenian derby.

Meeting statistics

The current form of NK Olimpija Ljubljana

There are still a few matches left, but we can already speak of Olimpija’s players as the new Slovenian champions. Or, at least, the most likely new champions. A complete collapse of the current league leaders in the remaining four rounds (a few more for some teams) would allow even third-placed Koper and fourth-placed Celje to theorize about the title, let alone the vice-leaders Maribor.

From the standpoint of Olimpija, which have an away game against Mura after the derby against Maribor, a home game against Radomlje, and then a duel against Bravo, all scenarios, except the one with them at the top after the 36th round, are practically impossible. This season, “Zmaji” (The Dragons) haven’t yet lost more than twice in a row. They had their darkest periods in early October, when they added a home defeat to Koper to the defeat against German Bundesliga team Heidenheim in the UEFA Conference League, and in early March, when a sensational league defeat against last-place Domžale was followed by a defeat in the derby away in Maribor. But that slap in Maribor in the 24th round, which brought the vice-leaders within three points of them, didn’t confuse Olimpija. With a series of victories (and Maribor’s slip-ups) they once again escaped their biggest rival and maintained their advantage, although, in the last four first league matches, they only defeated Domžale, and drew against Koper, Nafta, and, on Sunday, Celje.

The current form of NK Maribor

Even though they are slim, Maribor’s chances to outrank Olimpija in the Prva liga Telemach finish exist. Truly, they border on the unbelievable. “Vijoličasti” (The Purples) are 10 points behind their eternal rival, with 15 points on the line. Not only because of the result crisis after the last international break, when they were first eliminated from the national cup and then remained without a win in the matches against Domžale, Bravo, and Nafta, regardless of the victories against Mura and Radomlje, it’s clear that the battle for first place is probably already lost to the Slovenian record titleholders.

Maribor will primarily be repairing the impression of a turbulent season at the largest stadium in the country. Even if they take full spoils from Ljubljana and then win the postponed Styrian derby against Celje, they’d still be four points behind the championship leaders in the last three rounds.

Head-to-head

These two have faced each other 71 times, counting both the period when they competed in the Yugoslav competitions and after the independence of Slovenia. Even though they mostly played in lower ranks in Yugoslavia, unlike Olimpija, Maribor have established themselves as the biggest club in Slovenia following the country’s independence. Hence, they became much better head-to-head against Olimpija with 28 wins, compared to Olimpija’s 18. Twenty-five matches ended in a draw.

Match analytics

With a win in the derby, Olimpija would have an elusive 13-point lead over Maribor, and the title would be theirs with three rounds to go. We think that Olimpija won’t miss such an opportunity.

Tip: 1x2 & total: Olimpija Ljubljana & over 2.5, with odds of 2.83 on Bankonbet.