Lou Jeanmonnot vs. Julia Simon Prediction on February 21, 2026

Match info

The women’s 12.5km mass start is biathlon’s ultimate pressure cooker. Only the top 30 qualify, everyone leaves together, and medals are decided head-to-head with four shooting bouts (two prone, two standing). Pack dynamics, wind reads, and the nerve to shoot clean late decide everything. To frame how tight this field is as form and conditions evolve, it’s worth checking Milano Cortina 2026 odds.

When:
Saturday, February 21, 2026 — start at 14:15 local time, Central European Time (CET).

Where:
The race is staged at the Anterselva Biathlon Arena in Antholz-Anterselva, Italy, a high-altitude venue where thin air and fickle winds magnify every decision on the range—especially the final standing shoot.

Meeting statistics

Current form and & playstyle: Lou Jeanmonnot

The biggest favorite, according to sportsbooks, is Lou Jeanmonnot, whose rise has been built on balance rather than boom-or-bust speed.

The French biathlete skis with restraint early, keeps contact through the prone stages, and trusts her process on the range. That patience pays dividends in mass starts, where over-aggression often backfires. When conditions turn tricky at Anterselva, her calm rhythm can quietly move her from the pack to the podium.

Current form & playstyle: Julia Simon

Another French biathlete enters as the major favorite because the mass start rewards exactly what she does best: economy in traffic, crisp range work under pressure, and the ability to accelerate without burning matches.

Simon is comfortable letting the race come to her, then asserting control when the field compresses. If she exits the last standing clean, her finishing strength makes her brutally hard to pass.

Dark horse: Elvira Öberg

The dark horse is Elvira Öberg. The Swedish athlete’s ceiling is as high as anyone’s in the field thanks to her ski speed, and if she finds a clean shooting day, she can turn the race into a power contest. The risk is volatility—she lives closer to the edge on the range—but if the pace spikes and others hesitate, Öberg is the one who can blow the race open between shots.

Head-to-head

Simon vs. Jeanmonnot is a study in control vs. patience: Simon tends to shape the decisive moments around the range, while Jeanmonnot prefers to stay invisible until the final lap. Öberg changes the geometry when she commits to tempo—forcing both French athletes to respond on skis and raising the stakes at the standing shoots. At Anterselva, where wind can flip outcomes in seconds, that trio dynamic is especially volatile.

Match analytics

If the race stays tactical and the range is decisive, Julia Simon is the most likely Olympic champion. Lou Jeanmonnot is the primary challenger with the most consistent podium record. Elvira Öberg is the most credible spoiler if ski speed dominates or the race fragments early.

Tip: Winner: Julia Simon at 6.00 odds on Dinamobet.