Jannik Sinner vs. Tomáš Macháč Prediction on October 12, 2024

Match info

In the men’s tennis 2024 Rolex Shanghai Masters singles semifinal, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz were expected to face off for the 11th time. However, on Thursday, Tomáš Macháč shocked the Spaniard in the quarterfinal, advancing him to a match against the world No. 1. As the penultimate Masters 1000 event of 2024 draws to a close, both Sinner and Macháč square off on Saturday, October 12, at 10 a.m. local time on the outdoor hard court at Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena. Both are eager to earn a spot in Sunday’s championship match. Tennis bookmakers don’t give much of a chance to the Czech player, though.

Meeting statistics

The current form of Jannik Sinner

Daniil Medvedev stood no chance to beat Sinner; the Italian dominated the Russian, winning 6-1 and 6-4 to level their head-to-head match at 7-7. When their rivalry began, the 23-year-old had lost to the former No. 1 in six straight matches. However, in their following eight meetings on the ATP Tour, Sinner won seven times, including this year’s stunning comeback from two sets down in the Australian Open final.

After defeating Medvedev, who had trouble with a shoulder problem during Thursday’s quarterfinal, Sinner has reached his 11th semifinal of 2024 (no player has made more last-four appearances on the Tour), making him the first player to do so since Stefanos Tsitsipas in 2022.

After winning his 63rd match of the year, the Italian will now face a steamed Macháč for just the second time. The Czech player’s victory over Alcaraz ensures that the Italian player will be ranked first at the end of the season. After winning his 51st match at hard court Masters 1000 events, Sinner is the clear favorite going into Saturday’s match against a self-assured player who can hit both wings; he’s 1.11 on Betolimp. On the other hand, Macháč is a huge underdog, with 6.56 odds to win.

The current form of Tomáš Macháč

Instead of the highly-anticipated Sinner vs. Alcaraz final in Shanghai, fans had to settle for Macháč facing the best player of the season and the top player at the end of the year. A surprising match-up in the final four is assured based on the Czech player’s incredible journey to the semi-finals, where he upset the four-time Grand Slam champion 7-6(5), 7-5, after overpowering Tommy Paul being a set down before that. The 23-year-old’s incredible victory against the Spaniard snapped the world No. 2’s 12-match winning run and was his third victory this season over a player ranked in the top 10 after he defeated Novak Djoković in Geneva and Andrey Rublev at the Miami Masters.

The world No. 33 is now looking to shock Sinner in order to move on to Sunday’s championship match. Having become the fourth lowest-ranked player to make it to the semifinals at this event, after Kei Nishikori (No. 47, 2011), Feliciano López (41, 2009), and Juan Mónaco (41, 2010), Macháč is also the first player outside the top 30 to do so since a 32nd-ranked Giles Simon in 2016.

Head-to-head

On his way to winning the Miami Open, Sinner defeated Macháč in their lone meeting. It was an easy victory in two sets.

The Italian has a 43-3 hard-court record in 2024 going into the semi-final on Saturday. The only players to defeat him on the surface this season are Alcaraz (twice, in Beijing and Indian Wells) and Rublev (Canada Masters). This highlights the top seed’s steadiness this year.

Match analytics

Even though Alcaraz is an extremely gifted player who plays with great diversity on the Tour, he’s still vulnerable to upsets like the one he had against Macháč on Thursday. Sinner isn’t as vulnerable as the Spaniard and should defeat the Czech to make his first Shanghai final. The Italian’s skill at reading opponents and finding effective forehand and backhand wing weapons can win matches even when he isn’t playing at a high level. So, Sinner will sweep Macháč in straight sets in the match with not so many games in total.

Tip: Match Total Games U 20.5, with odds of 1.85 on Everygame.

Results of the forecast

Successful forecast. Jannik Sinner vs. Tomáš Macháč 2:0