Ismagulov vs. Dawson Prediction on July 1, 2023

Match info

The next MMA event under the UFC (UFC on ESPN 48) will take place in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, on Saturday, July 1 at 9 PM ET. Damir Ismagulov, a Russian fighter with Kazakh ancestry, and Grant Dawson, an American, will square off in the co-main event at UFC APEX.

Meeting statistics

The lightweight is the division where this fight belongs. Ismagulov and Dawson are rated on the 20th and 15th lines, respectively, of this category. A slight favorite among bookmakers with iOS apps odds is the Russian.

The current form of Ismagulov

Ismagulov defeated Maxim Divnich to win the M-1 Global championship in 2017, successfully defended it twice, and then joined the UFC. He had five battles and won them all in the toughest league in the world, and everything went flawlessly for him up until December of last year. That’s when he and Arman Tsarukyan finally met. The bout turned out to be fierce, but it wasn’t to Ismagulov’s advantage. The men began punching one other really hard and gravely cutting each other, but Tsarukyan saw that this wouldn’t work and transformed it into a brawl. He did anything he pleased while on the ground. True, he was unable to defeat his foe, but he came near and had Ismagulov use all of his might in defending himself. In the second round of the battle, Tsarukyan wanted to fight standing up since he was quicker and more precise there against a worn-out Ismagulov.

The current form of Dawson

The American has one draw to his credit in the UFC but is undefeated thus far. Since practically all of Dawson’s victories have been via submission, including the previous two (one of which was over Olympic Greco-Roman wrestler Mark Madsen), he employs superb jiu-jitsu.

Ismagulov vs. Dawson comparison

A stand against wrestling: these two fighters produce everything we love about MMA. A head-to-head matchup will reveal who moves up and who’s at the top as a random bystander. Both fighters are at the bottom of the top 15, constantly having issues against anyone who’s above them in the rankings.

Match analytics

The bout with Tsarukyan revealed that Ismagulov is having severe issues with top-tier wrestlers. However, his wrestling is distinct. First off, Tsarukyan and Dawson’s skill levels are just unmatched (this is freestyle wrestling, not BJJ), and secondly, you must transfer Ismagulov to the ground before you can control him there. Furthermore, even though Dawson is quite dangerous on the ground, takedowns are a problem for him (30% of success, according to league data). In the stand, Ismagulov is just a head better and would kick the opponent to keep him from coming close. Ismagulov defends well against transfers to the ground.

The win of Ismagulov is evaluated at appealing odds of 1.77 on FanDuel.

Results of the forecast

Forecast failed. Victory Dawson