Ilia Malinin vs. Yuma Kagiyama Prediction on February 13, 2026

Match info

The men’s single free skating at the Olympic Winter Games is figure skating’s most anticipated finale — the long program that crowns the overall Olympic champion after the short program. It’s where skaters’ endurance, artistry, jump content, and competitive temperament are tested in a four- to five-minute routine that combines technical elements (jumps, spins, footwork) with program components (interpretation, skating skills, choreography). Unlike the short program, the free skate usually shapes final medal standings — mistakes here can dramatically swing podium placements.

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Men’s single free skating competition is scheduled for the evening session on Friday, February 13, 2026, at approx. 19:00 local time (Central European Time – CET).

Note: Exact session time may vary slightly in the final published schedule.

The competition is staged in Milano Ice Park Arena (Forum di Assago) in Assago, near Milan, Italy — a long-established venue for figure skating at the Winter Games.

Meeting statistics

Current form and & playstyle: Ilia Malinin

Malinin — often dubbed the “Quad God” — enters the Olympic free skate as the clear favorite for gold. The American athlete, whose parents both competed successfully at the international level, is the reigning two-time World Champion and currently tops the ISU World Standings, reflecting dominance across both technical elements and overall scoring.

Malinin’s style is defined by jaw-dropping jump difficulty: he consistently lands multiple quadruple jumps, including rare elements like the quad Axel, which lifts his base technical score well above rivals. Beyond raw jumps, he’s worked to blend artistry and transitions into programs that can win under both the technical and program components scoring system — a critical factor in Olympic long programs.

Current form & playstyle: Yuma Kagiyama

As a consistent World Championship medalist and a skater with the blend of athletic prowess and artistic polish needed for a free skate medal, the Japanese athlete is one of the best challengers poised to push Malinin. Over the 2025–26 season, he’s combined strong jump layouts (including triple Axel and high-level quad attempts) with rich choreography and mature interpretation, which judges reward under the program components score.

While perhaps not as technically explosive as Malinin, Kagiyama’s balance of technical difficulty and performance quality makes him a realistic silver or even gold threat if Malinin errs.

Note: Mikhail Shaidorov earned a silver medal at the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships, finishing behind Malinin but ahead of most other contenders, which signals his readiness to challenge on the Olympic stage. The Kazakh athlete’s free skate programs blend strong basic jump layouts with controlled transitions and surprisingly solid artistry. In a high-stakes Olympic free skate, where favorites sometimes stumble under pressure, Shaidorov’s consistency and confidence could vault him into medal contention.

Head-to-head

Throughout this competitive season, Malinin holds the statistical edge thanks to his World titles and his ability to execute extremely high base-value elements. Kagiyama is the closest head-to-head rival: when Malinin’s quad totals falter, or spacing is tight, Kagiyama’s smoother execution and artistic strengths can close the gap. Shaidorov’s head-to-head results against both have occasionally been mixed — he’s shown he can score competitively in free skates at major championships, but lacks the same technical ceiling as Malinin. This sets up a classic dynamic: Malinin’s technical firepower vs. Kagiyama’s balanced program construction, with Shaidorov lurking if either falters.

Match analytics

Ilia Malinin’s quad-heavy arsenal and recent World Championship victories make him the most likely Olympic free skate winner. Yuma Kagiyama is undoubtedly an elite all-around skater capable of capitalizing if Malinin slips. Odds for his win are 10x bigger than Malinin’s on online sportsbooks’ offers.

Note: In figure skating, Olympic free skate outcomes can hinge on jump execution and program component scores, so watching the short program results and how athletes respond to pressure before the long program is essential for informed decisions.

Tip: Who Will Win: Ilia Malinin – Yes at 1.048 odds on XpariBet.