Florian Lipowitz vs. Oscar Onley Prediction on July 22–25, 2025

Match info

Following a rest day on Monday, July 21, the 2025 Tour de France will be entering the final 6 stages of the race. With a lead of more than 4 minutes after 15 stages, the Slovenian Tadej Pogačar has an open road to defending the title at the oldest and most prestigious men’s cycling Grand Tour. Now, the focus shifts to who’ll join him on the podium when all the cyclists go through the finish line at Paris’ Champs-Élysées; or better yet, who’ll win or be close to doing so in the remaining stage(s), with the next one on the schedule on Tuesday, July 22, from Montpellier to Mont Ventoux (171.5 km) at 12:40 p.m. CET (local time). Let’s try to figure out whether Florian Lipowitz or Oscar Onley will win more races from stages 16 to 19—all mountain stages (except for Stage 17, which is flat)—i.e., which one has better mountain podium potential.

Meeting statistics

Current form: Florian Lipowitz

The Red Bull–Bora-Hansgrohe rider is currently 3rd on GC (+7:53 behind Pogačar); Lipowitz is a consistent young climber, durable in long ascents. He lacks an explosive finishing kick, though. The best stage fits are stages 18 & 19 (Alpine climbs). The German is better built for back-to-back summit grinds like Col de la Loze and La Plagne. His durability and GC standing mean he’ll be in the top group throughout. All in all, Lipowitz is a technical climber, likely a podium contender if big names falter—but unlikely to crack the top 2; he’ll hold 3rd.

Current form: Oscar Onley

The Team Picnic–PostNL rider is gaining ground but is far down (9th, +18’, and currently, 4th, +9’). Onley possesses explosive attacks and is strong on steep pitches. He’s less consistent over multi-climb stages. Strong rider but virtually out of GC contention. The best stage fit is Stage 16 (Ventoux). This one suits Onley more than Lipowitz: he excels on shorter, steeper, punchy climbs. If the GC battle simmers, he could sneak onto the podium in a reduced group.

Match analytics

Lipowitz—more likely to consistently podium across 2 or more of these 4 stages. In his current form, he rides smarter defensively and stays with GC leaders. Onley—higher variance, but better suited for 1 explosive breakout stage, especially Ventoux.

If you're looking for stage-specific betting, take Onley the top 3 on Stage 16. If any bookmaker with an app for Android offers head-to-head stage podiums, favor Lipowitz overall, but selectively hedge Onley for stages 16 and 17 and Lipowitz for a mountain podium (e.g., stages 16–19)—good form, less targeted.

Tip: Each-way play: Lipowitz for a mountain podium. TornadoBet has appealing odds for the 2025 Tour de France at the moment, but unfortunately, only for Round 16 and an outright win.