Éric Perrot vs. Tommaso Giacomel Prediction on February 20, 2026

Match info

The men’s 15km mass start is biathlon stripped to its essentials: only the top 30 qualify, everyone leaves the line together, and medals are decided head-to-head with four shooting bouts (two prone, two standing). Positioning, composure on the range, and the ability to respond instantly to attacks matter more here than anywhere else. It’s often the race that crowns the most complete biathlete of the Games. For context on the 2026 Winter Olympics betting markets, as form and weather come into play, a quick glance at Olympic odds can help frame the field.

When:
Friday, February 20, 2026, starts at 14:15 local time (Central European Time, CET).

Where:
The race is staged at the Anterselva Biathlon Arena in Antholz-Anterselva, Italy—a high-altitude venue where thin air and fickle winds amplify every shooting decision, especially on the final standing bout.

Meeting statistics

Current form and & playstyle: Éric Perrot

The French biathlete arrives as a co-favorite because the mass start suits his strengths. He’s comfortable skiing in traffic, rarely wastes energy early, and times his moves around the range rather than between them.

Perrot’s shooting rhythm is compact and repeatable, which is valuable when the line is stacked and the wind is flickering. When the race tightens late, he tends to grow—not panic—making him lethal over the final lap if he exits the last standing clean.

Current form & playstyle: Tommaso Giacomel

Alongside Perrot, Tommaso Giacomel stands as the other big favorite, boosted by both form and home conditions. The Italian biathlete races mass starts with intent: assertive ski tempo, confident range work, and a willingness to take responsibility for the pace.

He’s especially dangerous at Anterselva, where familiarity with the altitude and range behavior helps him commit decisively when others hesitate. If he’s among the front group after the third shot, his finishing speed and crowd energy can turn pressure into propulsion.

Dark horse: Johannes Dale-Skjevdal

The dark horse is Johannes Dale-Skjevdal. The Norwegian athlete thrives when mass-start chaos sets in. He’s prepared to stretch the field on skis, force rivals into uncomfortable rhythms, and back himself to shoot well enough under duress. The risk is obvious—his aggression lives close to the edge—but if the pace spikes and the favorites blink on the range, Dale is exactly the kind of racer who can flip the script in one lap.

Head-to-head

Perrot vs. Giacomel is a study in contrast: Perrot’s patience and range control against Giacomel’s proactive tempo and confidence. When shooting decides the race, Perrot often has the edge; when the skis do, Giacomel can create separation. Dale-Skjevdal tends to sit outside that duel early, then injects volatility—his attacks between shots are the catalyst that can expose small errors from both favorites, especially if conditions deteriorate on the range.

Match analytics

If the race stays measured and the range remains the primary separator, Éric Perrot is the safest pick for gold. If the tempo is assertive and the field strings out, Tommaso Giacomel has a clear path to win—particularly with home support. Johannes Dale-Skjevdal is the most credible spoiler if aggression and pressure decide the final kilometers.

Tip: Winner: Giacomel, Tommaso at 5.00 odds on Casino Infinity.