Domen Prevc vs. Ryōyū Kobayashi Prediction on January 4, 2026

Match info

The Four Hills Tournament (2025–26 is the 74th edition) is men’s ski jumping’s most iconic holiday stretch: four World Cup events in Germany + Austria, run in a knockout duel format that turns every jump into bracket pressure. It also counts as part of the FIS Ski Jumping World Cup, so it’s not “just” a standalone trophy chase—it shapes the season narrative right as form peaks into January.

If you’re following the markets, the Four Hills is one of the few winter-sport events where outright and stage-by-stage lines are widely available at top-10 bookies online.

Predictions say that two of the sport’s stars, Domen Prevc of Slovenia and Ryōyū Kobayashi of Japan, will vie for the highest podium places in the event. For our betting thread, we’ve chosen the third tournament in this year’s Four Hill series, the one at Innsbruck’s Bergiselschanze (Austria), which will be held on Sunday, January 4, 2026, at 13:30 Central European Time (CET, local time).

Meeting statistics

Current form and & playstyle: Domen Prevc

Prevc comes into the Tournee looking like the season’s pace-setter: he leads the overall World Cup standings going into Four Hills, which is usually the clearest indicator of who has repeatable “week-to-week” form rather than a single hot weekend. 
His current profile is “high floor, high ceiling”—the FIS notes he’s producing the best World Cup season of his career, and the results support that.

In practical terms, Prevc’s jumping right now tends to win with clean execution and stability across both rounds, which matters hugely in Four Hills because the K.O. system punishes even one sloppy attempt. He’s also shown he can handle the mental grind of consecutive events—he carried a multi-win streak into Engelberg, and even when that streak ended, he still stayed right at the front of the season-long race.

Current form & playstyle: Ryōyū Kobayashi

Kobayashi arrives as the ultimate Tournee specialist—a three-time Four Hills champion—and he’s trending sharply upward at the perfect time. The key recent signal is Engelberg: he ended Prevc’s five-tournament winning streak by jumping himself from fifth to first with a strong second-round hit, which is exactly the kind of “champion move” Four Hills winners are built on.

Style-wise, Kobayashi is often at his most dangerous when the event becomes a two-round chess match: he can stay within striking distance early, then produce a “statement” final jump when pressure peaks. That matters on these hills because conditions and speed gates can swing quickly; athletes who can upgrade in round two (instead of merely “surviving”) tend to stack Tournee points fast. He’s also second in the World Cup standings behind Prevc, so this isn’t nostalgia—it’s current, top-level performance.

Head-to-head

Prevc vs Kobayashi is shaping up as the season’s headline duel: after Engelberg (Dec 21), Prevc leads the overall World Cup points, with Kobayashi second. Most importantly for “recent H2H,” Kobayashi’s Engelberg win explicitly stopped Prevc’s winning streak, showing he can beat the in-form leader straight up right before Four Hills begins. And historically, Kobayashi’s edge is Tournee pedigree (three overall titles), while Prevc’s edge is this season’s consistency and control.

Match analytics

We predict that Domen Prevc will win the 2025–26 Four Hills Tournament, with Ryōyū Kobayashi as the most likely challenger (a true 1A/1B situation). Prevc’s case is simple: he’s the season’s points leader, and Four Hills rewards the athlete who can stay elite for eight scored jumps across four venues.

Tip: When available – outright, Domen Prevc (tournament winner).