De Ridder vs. Malykhin Prediction on March 1, 2023

Match info

The ONE 166 tournament for men’s MMA will take place on Friday, March 1, in Lusail, Qatar. The main event will be a middleweight champion rematch (in ONE, Asia’s largest combat sports promotion, this is 93 kg) between Russian Anatoly Malykhin and Dutchman Reinier de Ridder, and it will start at 8 p.m. local time at Lusail Sports Arena.

In odds of bookmakers with iOS apps, Malykhin is a big favorite.

Meeting statistics

If he wins, Malykhin will become the first fighter in the history of mixed martial arts to hold championship belts in three weight categories simultaneously. Now he’s the current ONE light heavyweight and heavyweight champion.

The fighters met last December in a fight for the belt in the light heavyweight category. Then the Russian fighter knocked out the famous Dutchman with a short right hook in the first round.

The current form of De Ridder

Reinier de Ridder is a basic grappler of the highest class and has successfully adapted all his wrestling skills to MMA (the vast majority of victories were won by submission). The Dutchman became a double champion in 2020, capturing the middleweight and light heavyweight titles in a dominant style. He managed to defend each of the titles, but then he ran into Malykhin, and you know the rest – he had to bid farewell to the light heavyweight division belt.

After losing to Malykhin, De Ridder had a grappling fight with champion Tye Ruotolo at ONE Fight Night 10 and lost by decision.

The current form of Malykhin

Anatoly Malykhin began his journey in martial arts with freestyle wrestling; he won the MMA World Championship as an amateur but still transitioned to a professional. Here he has been knocking out his opponents, won all his victories early, and hasn’t yet suffered a single defeat.

After defeating De Ridder in December 2022, the Russian finally met with Arjan Bhullar (he avoided the fight for a very long time), finished him in the third round, and also took the heavyweight belt (Malykhin already had the light heavyweight belt).

Now, to make history, the Russian wants another title in the middleweight division. But it will be very difficult to do this - and it’s not even a matter of the opponent’s quality (although De Ridder, one might say, was a legendary champion and went undefeated until Malykhin stood in his way). The point is in Malykhin himself – how his body will cope with a tough weight loss, how much he lost in strength and speed, this is still unknown and one can only guess about it. And it’s good that the average weight in ONE is 93 kg, and not 83, as, for example, in the UFC and the Russian leagues.

Comparison of De Ridder and Malykhin

Jiu-jitsu versus freestyle wrestling is always great. But Malykhin also has a punch, an advantage in physical strength, and decent experience in beating grapplers with his fists. Will the scenario of their previous confrontation repeat itself?

Match analytics

De Ridder will make every effort to go to the ground as quickly as possible; his chances are only there. But to do this, he needs to somehow break through Malykhin’s heavy boxing short series, which looks like an impossible task (last time it didn’t work out at all).

But grounding Malykhin is still not enough – the Russian will simply crush his opponent with physical force. You must first tire him out, and then try to “catch“ him. And, in order to tire him, you need to somehow survive at least the first round. Therefore, we believe that De Ridder will be extremely careful in the first half of the fight, will avoid dangerous approaches, and move a lot so as not to get caught.

It’s unlikely that all this will save him in the end, but he’s capable of surviving until the first gong. Vast championship experience, the ability to follow a plan, and composure are the keys to this.

In the bookmaker Betolimp, the bet Total (1.5) over is rated high – the odds are 2.03.