Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction on January 25, 2025

Match info

The 2025 Australian Open women’s tennis championship match pits Aryna Sabalenka against Madison Keys. The men’s final is the next day. See below for our prediction, odds, and pick for the winner of the first of the four Grand Slam events, the pinnacles of tennis, scheduled this (and every other) year. On Saturday, January 25, at 7:30 p.m. local time, the Belarusian and American players will square off at Melbourne, Victoria’s Rod Laver Arena within Melbourne Park.

Meeting statistics

The current form of Aryna Sabalenka

Even though Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Świątek have amassed a significant amount of hardware over the previous few years, we weren’t treated to the spectacle of their match in the final. One would expect that by now, the world’s top two women’s tennis players would face off in a major tournament final. That scenario was just one point away from happening. Madison Keys, though, was determined not to lose against Świątek.

Anyway, this match isn’t Sabalenka vs. Świątek, yet it’s still supposed to be really captivating and fascinating. After winning the 2024 U.S. Open in September of last year, the world’s No. 1 Sabalenka is aiming for a third consecutive Australian Open victory. If that happens, she’ll become the first player since Martina Hingis to win three straight women’s singles titles at the AO. The Swiss did the feat from 1997 to 1999. Sabalenla also aims for her second consecutive major triumph (both on hard courts) and a third major title in her previous five tournaments.

She plagued her way to the championship match with a surgical 6-4, 6-2 win over Paula Badosa of Spain in the semis.

Because she’s in her prime, the 26-year-old Belarusian has a chance to push for a career with double-digit major titles. Sabalenka is on a 13-game winning streak, with the last loss coming to Coco Gauff at the Riyadh Masters last November. The Belarusian, coming fresh off a triumph in Brisbane, only served eight aces in the AO thus far but has won 67% of her first serves. She has also converted 30 of 60 break-point chances and held her serves at 73%.

Sabalenka is an absolute favorite in the final, with odds of 1.26 on Betboro. Keys is 3.03.

The current form of Madison Keys

Madison Keys wasn’t going to let Świątek win. In an exciting semifinal match against the Pole, she saved a match point. In the first-to-10 match tiebreaker, the world’s No. 14 was behind 5-7. She rallied back and won the tiebreaker 10-8 to face Sabalenka, not allowing a 1st-versus-2nd matchup.

An encouraging competitor is in Sabalenka’s path to the trophy. Keys has long been a part of professional women’s tennis. In 2013, at the age of 17, she broke into the top 100 of the WTA rankings. From the start, her superb skill and strong ball-striking were clear to see. It was evident to all that she had the potential to become someone exceptional. It appeared as though her career was about to take off when she defeated Sloane Stephens in the 2017 U.S. Open final at the age of 22. But injuries stood in her way. Keys has been forced to withdraw or miss significant competitions, including Wimbledon last year, where she faced eventual tournament runner-up Jasmine Paolini. Keys has been frustrated by her career’s stop-and-start style, and in prior years, her game was hindered by her shot selection too. The American is now an older, more seasoned player who’ll turn 30 in February. Her career would become a part of a greater narrative of tenacity being completely rewarded if she were to win her first major championship.

She’s on an 11-game winning streak after losing to Clara Tauson in Auckland at the beginning of January. Keys has amassed 28 aces while winning 68% of her first serves at the AO. She has also held serves at 78%.

Head-to-head

The two players met five times. Sabalenka leads 4-1 in h2h. The Balrusian swept Keys 2-0 in Beiing last October in the last face-off between them. No wonder Keys is coming in the AO final as the underdog. The heavy one by odds of best bookies for tennis.

Match analytics

Nearly four years have passed since Keys last defeated Sabalenka. After prevailing over Świątek, she has little chance of pulling off another upset, even though it will be a free-for-all when she and Sabalenka take the court on Saturday. We believe that the Belarusian will triumph, but it will take more than two sets.

Tip: Correct score – 2:1, with odds of 4.00 on Leader-Bet.

Results of the forecast

Forecast failed. Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys 1:2