2026 Winter Olympics Medal Predictions

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KEY TAKEAWAYS:

• Norway enters Milano-Cortina 2026 as the clear medal favorite, backed by unmatched depth in Nordic disciplines and consistent Olympic dominance.
• Germany, the United States, and Canada form the main chasing pack, each bringing unique strengths that could reshape the medal table.
• Medal prediction markets offer long-term analytical opportunities, but results remain influenced by injuries, form swings, and late qualification changes.

From Nordic skiing giants to speed skating specialists and home-nation hopefuls, Milano-Cortina 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most competitive Winter Games in recent memory.

While athletes continue their final preparations, analysts and betting markets are forming a clear picture of likely medal contenders. Based on historical performance, current form, and early projections, several nations stand out as favorites to finish at the top.

Let’s take a closer look at how the medal race is expected to unfold.

Norway: The Benchmark for Winter Sports Excellence

Norway enters the Games as the most dominant winter sports nation globally. Their advantage lies not only in the presence of elite athletes but also in the sheer number of medal opportunities available in Nordic events.

Cross-country skiing and biathlon alone offer multiple races per athlete, allowing Norway to accumulate medals quickly. Stars such as Johannes Thingnes Bø and Johannes Høsflot Klæbo remain among the strongest contenders for gold in their respective disciplines.

This consistent production line of elite performers explains why Norway is widely projected to lead both the gold-medal and total-medal counts once again in 2026.

Germany: Masters of the Ice Track

Germany’s medal strength comes from a very different profile. While Norway dominates snow endurance sports, Germany’s greatest advantage lies in sliding disciplines — luge, skeleton, and bobsleigh.

These sports have historically yielded a reliable stream of podium finishes for German athletes. With the Cortina sliding center designed to modern standards, Germany is expected to capitalize once again.

Beyond sliding events, Germany remains competitive in biathlon and ski jumping, remaining firmly among the top overall medal contenders.

United States: Star Power Across Multiple Disciplines

The United States may not match Norway’s medal depth in Nordic events, but it brings versatility and star appeal across several sports.

In speed skating, emerging talents such as Jordan Stolz can win multiple races. Alpine skiing remains a major medal opportunity thanks to Mikaela Shiffrin’s continued excellence. Meanwhile, the return of NHL players to Olympic ice hockey gives Team USA realistic gold medal ambitions in one of the most-watched events of the Games.

This broad coverage across disciplines makes the U.S. one of the most unpredictable—and potentially explosive—teams at the Milano-Cortina 2026 Games.

Canada: Reliable Podium Producer

Canada continues to rank among the most balanced winter sports nations. The country’s greatest medal prospects lie in freestyle skiing, short-track speed skating, and ice hockey.

Canadian athletes regularly convert finals appearances into podium finishes, helping maintain a steady medal tally. While Canada may not lead the overall medal table, it consistently finishes among the top nations thanks to strength across multiple event categories.

The Netherlands: Speed Skating Specialists

The Netherlands doesn’t compete for medals across as many sports as some larger nations, but when it comes to long-track speed skating, few countries come close.

Dutch skaters frequently dominate Olympic podiums, which means even a narrow sport focus can translate into an impressive medal count. Expect the Netherlands to once again rank among the top nations purely on the basis of skating success.

Italy: Host Nation Momentum

Hosting the Olympics often provides a psychological and environmental advantage — and Italy hopes to benefit from both.

Athletes such as Sofia Goggia headline Italy’s medal hopes in alpine skiing, while short track, snowboarding, and freestyle events offer additional opportunities. Crowd support, familiarity with venues, and national momentum could help Italy outperform expectations and push closer to the upper half of the medal table.

Projected Medal Table Outlook

While exact outcomes remain uncertain, current projections point toward the following general medal distribution among top nations:

These projections combine historical performance trends, athlete form, and early market analysis rather than guaranteed results.

Comparing Bookmakers: Who Offers the Best 2026 Winter Olympics Medal Odds?

As the Games approach, online sportsbooks have already launched medal futures markets, allowing users over 18 to explore odds on gold-medal leaders, total medal winners, and top-three finishers.

For readers looking to compare platforms and understand how different sportsbooks structure Olympic markets, resources from Olympic betting platforms offer useful overviews of available bookmakers, market types, and regional availability without needing to jump between multiple sites.

Although pricing varies between platforms, most bookmakers share similar expectations regarding dominant nations.

Bet365

Bet365 is among the earliest sportsbooks to publish Olympic futures markets. Their listings typically include national medal leaders, total medal outcomes, and gold medal count predictions. Norway consistently appears as the strongest favorite.

Betway

Betway offers a broad selection of Olympic futures markets, including medal leader predictions, country performance props, and outright national outcomes. The platform is known for regularly updating odds as qualification events progress and athlete form changes, making it popular among users who follow long-term tournament markets closely.

BetVictor

This particular bookmakers often offer expanded Olympic sections featuring medal thresholds, country-specific props, and cash-out options as the competition progresses.

TonyBet

TonyBet appeals to users seeking alternative medal formats, such as performance ranges and specialty futures tied to specific national outcomes.

Prediction Markets

Prediction platforms offer real-time trading on Olympic outcomes. These markets reflect public sentiment rather than fixed bookmaker odds and can shift rapidly based on athlete performance and news.

How Current Odds Reflect Medal Expectations

While exact figures vary by provider, most markets currently position Norway as the leading favorite, followed by Germany and the United States. Canada remains a consistent mid-tier contender, while Italy and the Netherlands attract interest based on home advantage and sport specialization.

This alignment between projections and market behavior reinforces the expectation that Nordic dominance will remain a defining storyline in 2026.

Pros and Cons of Betting on Winter Olympics Medal Predictions

Before placing any wagers related to Winter Olympics medal markets, it’s important to understand both the potential advantages and the risks involved. Medal prediction markets differ significantly from traditional match betting, offering unique opportunities — but also unique challenges.

Final Thoughts

Heading into Milano-Cortina 2026, Norway stands as the strongest overall favorite to dominate the medal table, supported by unmatched depth in Nordic disciplines. Germany’s sliding excellence, America’s star power, Canada’s consistency, and Italy’s home advantage all promise an exciting battle for podium positions.

Whether you’re following the Games as a fan, analyst, or casual observer, the fight for medal supremacy will remain one of the most compelling storylines throughout the Winter Olympics.