Gaudu vs. Vingegaard Prediction on April 3-8, 2023

Match info

The 15th leg of the 2023 UCI World Tour takes place in the Basque Country, one of men’s cycling beloved heartlands, beginning the day after the Tour of Flanders and ending the day before Paris-Roubaix. It’s Itzulia Basque Country 2023 (2023 Tour of the Basque Country), which started on Monday, April 3, and will last until Saturday, April 8, when the last stage (Stage 6) Eibar-Eibar will be driven (at 2:03 PM local time).

Meeting statistics

The Basque Country will receive extra attention this year in the world of cycling because it will host the Grand Départ of this year’s Tour de France. The terrain in the Basque Country presents a completely different challenge from the Classics of Flanders, which are characterized by cobblestones and bergs. The most notable characteristics are the steep ascents, which are frequent in the heavily mountainous area, providing little opportunity for rest throughout the whole week due to its continuously rolling terrain. The very tall Pyrenean summits are a little bit too far west of some, but the sheer volume of hills makes Itzulia Basque Country one of the toughest stage events of the year.

The organizers of Itzulia Basque Country have changed the format somewhat for the 62nd edition to shake things up. The race’s signature climb of Alto de Arrate has been omitted, eliminating all mountain top finishes, and the customary time trial has also been removed from the schedule. However, the race appears to be favoring climbers and puncheurs as usual due to the terrain’s ineluctable hills and rolling roads. Due to the terrain, a bunch of sprints tends to be uncommon at this race.

Itzulia Basque Country offers a chance for all the riders who have consistently fallen short of them to win a maiden World Tour victory of the season because neither Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates), Primož Roglič (Jumbo-Visma), nor Remco Evenepoel (Soudal - Quick-Step) would be competing.

At Paris-Nice, Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) and David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) were the best of the rest, and the form guide consequently refers to them. Vingegaard, who won the Tour de France, is the most well-known competitor and will be viewed as the man to beat. He also has a strong track record in this race, having finished second here in 2021, and is the main favorite here based on odds of the Internet’s top bookmakers offshore in 2023. However, Gaudu outperformed him at Paris-Nice (finishing second, with Vingegaard in third), and if he can maintain this form in the Basque Country, he’ll have a solid chance of winning.

Mikel Landa, who came in second behind Pogačar at Ruta del Sol and will compete alongside fellow Basque Pello Bilbao for Bahrain-Victorious, is another rider Pogačar has denied this year. They will be driven to succeed since they are local riders, particularly because both have been in the top five overall here before but have never taken first place.

Ineos Grenadiers have the strongest lineup, at least on paper, but there are concerns about the form of their riders. Carlos Rodríguez is competing for the first time since colliding out of Strade Bianche, and Daniel Martínez’s 25th-place finish at Paris-Nice was a far cry from the form that saw the Colombian win Itzulia Basque Country a year ago. Egan Bernal is still on a long road to recovery and has yet to finish a race this season.

Match analytics

Itzulia Basque Country presents a genuine opportunity for other riders to make a statement due to the absence of the season’s top contenders, and Vingegaard will be eager to do so after suffering such a humiliating loss to Pogačar in Paris-Nice. Nevertheless, that same race showed a new side of Gaudu, one that implies the 26-year-old is finally ready to truly develop and mature.

We anticipate the Frenchman to win the stage race overall, if rather belatedly, given the absence of a time trial and the terrain’s suitability for his punchy characteristics. The odds for his overall win are 6.00 on Boylesports.